Correcting For Bias In Hot Hand Analysis: Analyzing Performance Streaks In Youth Golf

This paper illustrates the problems that arise with traditional tests for the hot hand and proposes instead using a consistent dynamic panel data estimator, which corrects for these problems and is easy to implement. Applying this estimator to a large dataset of amateur, youth golfers, we find no evidence of either hot or cold hand effects, even among the youngest golfers. When we restrict attention to the most-amateur of the golfers in our data, we do see weak evidence of a small hot hand. Thus casual athletes may experience small hot hands, but the effect does not persist among more serious athletes. This may give insight into why the belief in the hot hand in professional sports exists, even when the evidence suggests otherwise.