A Stochastic Population Projection for Canada's First Nations

Abstract: A stochastic population projection model for First Nations in Canada is produced and demonstrated for the years 2002 through 2032. The projection model uses historical time series and expert knowledge from traditional cohort-component based projections to specify parametric distributions for the stochastic processes governing population growth or decline. Probabilistic intervals for the future course of Canada’s First Nations’ population trajectory are calculated using computer simulations. A method for small-area population projections is demonstrated and a National forecast is produced as an example of the model.