Quantifying the Economic Impacts of COVID-19 Policy Responses on Canada's Provinces in (Almost) Real Time

We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic, seasonally-adjusted, input-output model with supply constraints. Our framework allows us to quantify potential scenarios for the impacts of lock-down and reopening which allow for dynamic complementarities between industries, seasonal fluctuations, and changes in the composition of demand. Taking account of the observed variation in re-opening strategies across provinces, we estimate the costs of the policy response in term of lost hours of employment and production.